Bayesian Balance: How a Tool for Bayesian Thinking Can Guide Us Between Relativism and the Truth Trap
This article explores the concept of truthiness, introduced by Stephen Colbert, and its implications in today’s discourse, where subjective truths often overshadow objective reality. It discusses the dangers of absolute certainty in beliefs, exemplified by a Young Earth creationist. Through Bayesian reasoning, it suggests adjusting beliefs based on evidence and introduces a model called Bayesian Balance, which helps in evaluating evidence without succumbing to absolute certainty.