Skeptic » eSkeptic » February 29, 2012

The Skeptics Society & Skeptic magazine



NEW ON SKEPTICBLOG.ORG
Teaching Allah and Xenu in Indiana

Michael Shermer criticizes the Indiana State Senate’s approval last month of a bill that would allow public school science teachers to teach religious origin stories in their classrooms, including those from: Christianity, Judaism, Islam, Hinduism, Buddhism, and Scientology.

READ THE POST

FOLLOW MICHAEL SHERMER ON TWITTERFacebookSkepticblog

David DiSalvo

Interview with David DiSalvo
SKEPTICALITY EPISODE 177

This week on Skepticality, Derek talks with David DiSalvo about his newest book, What Makes Your Brain Happy and Why You Should Do the Opposite, which delves into the ways in which we can recognize our brains’ faults and use them to live more fulfilled lives. DiSalvo is an award-winning public outreach and education specialist, and a popular writer for Scientific American Mind, Psychology Today, and other publications and blogs.

LISTEN TO EPISODE 177

FOLLOW THE RSS FEED

Get the Skepticality App and enjoy your science fix and engaging interviews on the go! Available for Android, iPhone, iPad, and iPod Touch iOS 3.0 or later.


About this week’s eSkeptic

Rapidly advancing technologies may have the potential not only to spread information but to solve some of humanity’s most vexing problems. In this week’s eSkeptic, Michael Shermer reviews a just-released book called Abundance: The Future is Better Than You Think by Peter H. Diamandis and Steven Kotler (Free Press, ISBN: 978-14516-1421-3). Together they have produced a manifesto for the future that is grounded in practical day-to-day solutions addressing the world’s most pressing problems: overpopulation, food, water, energy, education, healthcare, and freedom. A slightly different version of this review was originally published in the Wall Street Journal on Wednesday, February 22.

Share this eSkeptic with friends online. Click the + for more options.
Subscribe to Skeptic magazine for more great articles like this one.

It’s Getting Better All the Time

a review by Michael Shermer

If you read a major newspaper such as the New York Times or Wall Street Journal cover to cover every day for a week you will have consumed more digital information than a citizen in the 17th century Western world would have encountered in a lifetime. That’s a lot of digital data, but it’s nothing compared to what is on the immediate horizon. By comparison, from the earliest stirrings of civilization thousands of years ago to the year 2003, all of humankind created a grand total of five exabytes of digital information. An exabyte is one quintillion bytes, or one billion gigabytes. That’s a one followed by 18 zeros, and from 2003 through 2010 we created five exabytes of digital information every two days. By 2013 we will be producing five exabytes every ten minutes. How much information is this? The 2010 total of 912 exabytes is the equivalent of 18 times the amount of information contained in all the books ever written. This means that the world is not just changing, and the change is not just accelerating, but the rate of the acceleration of change is itself accelerating.

This and many other examples of accelerating returns are documented in Abundance: The Future is Better Than You Think by Peter H. Diamandis and Steven Kotler. Diamandis is the Chairman and CEO of the X PRIZE Foundation and the founder of more than a dozen high tech companies. Kotler is a journalist who writes for the New York Times magazine, Wired, Discover, GQ, and National Geographic. Together they have produced a manifesto for the future that is grounded in practical day-to-day solutions addressing the world’s most pressing problems: overpopulation, food, water, energy, education, healthcare, and freedom. They suggest that “humanity is now entering a period of radical transformation where technology has the potential to significantly raise the basic standard of living for every man, woman and child on the planet. Within a generation, we will be able to provide goods and services that were once reserved for the wealthy few to any and all who need them.” Accelerating change is happening in many areas:

  • Information: A Masai warrior with a smartphone on Google has access to more information than the President of the United States did just 15 years ago.
  • Technology: Today more people have access to a cell phone than a toilet.
  • Computing: In 15 years, the average $1000 laptop should be computing at the rate of the human brain.
  • Education: The Khan Academy’s YouTube tutorial videos on over 2200 topics from Algebra to Zoology draw over two million viewings a month.
  • Medicine: The field of personalized medicine—an industry that didn’t exist before 2003—is now growing at 15 percent a year and will reach $452 billion by 2015.
  • Aging: The centenarian population is doubling every decade, from 455,000 in 2009 to over 4.1 million by 2050.
  • Poverty: The number of people living in absolute poverty has fallen since the 1950s and has dropped by more than half. At the current rate of decline it will reach zero by around 2035.
  • Expenses: Groceries today cost 13 times less than 150 years ago in inflation adjusted dollars.
  • Business: Billion dollar companies are being created faster than ever—YouTube grew from startup to $1.6 billion in 18 months; Groupon went from startup to $6 billion in two years.
  • Standard of living: 95 percent of Americans now living below the poverty line have electricity, Internet, water, flushing toilets, a refrigerator and a television. John D. Rockefeller and Andrew Carnegie, among the richest people on the planet, enjoyed few of these luxuries.

The timing of this book is propitious. Between the 2011 Christian end-times soothsayers, the 2012 Mayan Calendar doomsayers, gloomy environmentalists, and the announcement in January by the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists that their Doomsday clock had been advanced to five minutes to midnight (and now includes environmental degradation and biological weapons alongside nuclear weapons as the likeliest candidates for our demise), how can anyone be so optimistic? With seven billion people now pressing up against the Earth’s carrying capacity there are seemingly intractable problems to be solved. Isn’t pessimism the appropriate response? Who’s right, the optimists or the pessimists?

The problem turns on cognitive biases that slant our interpretation of the data. Optimism is good for overcoming obstacles that are part of daily life, but over-optimism can blind one to adversities that should be heeded. In a Canadian study of inventors, for example, of those who participated in the Inventor’s Assistance Program in which they paid for objective evaluations of their invention on 37 different criteria, 47 percent continued working on their projects even after they were told that it was hopeless, and as a consequence they incurred losses double that of their more realistic colleagues. Optimism helps entrepreneurs override normal “loss aversion,” in which losses hurt twice as much as gains feel good, an emotion we evolved in our evolutionary environment of scarcity and uncertainty. Loss aversion leads most of us to be short term in our thinking. We discount the future in ways so predictable that economists have formulas to describe it. We focus on immediate events and bad news, and are blind to long-term trends and good news. Diamandis and Kolter not only acknowledge these cognitive biases, they address them head on as one more obstacle to abundance to be overcome.

I have long been skeptical of both doomsayers who project the end of the world in our generation, as well as futurists who proclaim that the Next Big Thing to revolutionize humanity and save the planet will happen in our lifetime. To date, the end-of-the world doomsters have been spectacularly and often embarrassingly wrong. And the futurists who craft a utopian narrative about how one day we will live forever, colonize the galaxy in starships, and materialize food and drink in replicators are indistinguishable from producers of science fiction and fantasy. Skeptics are from Missouri: Show Me. Diamandis and Kolter do just that, describing in specific detail how the revolution has already begun and that such abundance can be realized in our lifetime through three current forces:

  1. Do-It-Yourself (DIY) backyard tinkerers such as the aviation pioneer Burt Rutan, who won the X-Prize for achieving privatized space flight, and the geneticist J. Craig Venter, who beat the U.S. government in the race to sequence the human genome. Thousands of such DIYers are working away in garages and warehouses innovating solutions in neuroscience, biology, genetics, medicine, agriculture, robotics, and numerous other areas.
  2. Techno-philanthropists such as Bill Gates (malaria), Mark Zuckerberg (education), Pierre and Pam Omidyar (electricity in the developing world), and many more are dedicating significant portions of their vast fortunes to solving specific problems.
  3. The bottom billion, the poorest of the poor who have nowhere to go but up, as they become plugged into the global economy through micro-financing and the Internet will lift all boats with them as they work toward having clean water, nutritious food, affordable housing, personalized education, top-tier medical care, and ubiquitous energy. Don’t think of seven billion people as too many mouths to feed; think of them as seven billion brains who can think about solving heretofore insoluble problems.

The principles behind this process of abundance creation include: bottom-up v. top-down; non-linear v. linear; horizontal v. hierarchical; private entrepreneurship v. public works; small group v. large corporation; competition for prizes v. make-work for paycheck; risk disposed v. risk averse; Nonzero win-win v. zero-sum win-lose. The trend lines outlined by the authors are real enough, and if these principles were applied worldwide such abundance should indeed be realizable, in the long run if not in the short. The biggest hurdles, however, are not scientific or technological, but political. There are still too many corrupt dictators, third-world thugs, dear leaders, and backwards looking governments that would prefer corralling their people into medieval theocracies in order to enrich themselves. Still, as Matt Ridley demonstrated in The Rational Optimist and Steven Pinker in The Better Angels of Our Nature, even the political trend lines are moving in the right direction. In any case, as Diamandis likes to say: “The best way to predict the future is to create it yourself.”

Skeptical perspectives on the future…
cover The Rational Optimist:
How Prosperity Evolves

with Dr. Matt Ridley

Ridley demonstrates that life is getting better and at an accelerating rate. Food availability, income, and life span are up; disease, child mortality, and violence are down — all across the globe. Though the world is far from perfect, necessities and luxuries alike are getting cheaper; population growth is slowing; Africa is following Asia out of poverty; the Internet, the mobile phone, and container shipping are enriching people’s lives as never before…
ORDER THE LECTURE ON DVD.

cover The World in 2050: Four Forces Shaping Civilization’s Northern Future
with Laurence Smith

In a stunning presentation, UCLA Professor of Geography and Earth and Space Sciences, Dr. Laurence Smith, forecasts what our planet will be like in the year 2050, distilling his 15 months of research traveling the Arctic Rim with cutting-edge research into four global forces: demographic trends, natural resource demand, climate change, and globalization. The result is both good news and bad … This lecture combines the lessons of geography and history with state-of-the-art model projections and analytical data — everything from climate dynamics and resource stocks to age distributions and economic growth projections. ORDER THE LECTURE ON DVD.

cover The Future of Science, Technology,
and Education

with Bill Nye and James Randi

Bill Nye “the Science Guy” wows the audience with wit, humor, and inspiration about the future of science, technology, and education, how he got his start as “the science guy” and what we can all do to “change the world” so that everyone can embrace the wonders of science and reason. Also featured is a very special appearance by James “The Amazing” Randi, who regaled the audience with stories from his forthcoming book, A Magician in the Laboratory, and along the way explained how to test paranormal and pseudoscientific claims, his many challengers who have tried to win the million-dollar challenge offered by the James Randi Educational Foundation, and inspired a new generation of young skeptics in the audience to go out and make a difference by thinking skeptically and critically about all claims. This DVD is one of five available from our Science Symposium held at Caltech in 2011.
ORDER THE LECTURES ON DVD.


Our Next Lecture: Dr. Eric Topol

Eric Topol (photo by John Arispizabal)
The Creative Destruction of Medicine: How the Digital Revolution Will Create Better Health Care

with Dr. Eric Topol
Sunday, March 11, 2012 at 2 pm
Baxter Lecture Hall

WHAT HAPPENS WHEN YOU COMBINE cellular phone technology with the cellular aberrations in disease? Or create a bridge between the digital revolution with the medical revolution? How will minute biological sensors alter the way we treat lethal illnesses, such as heart attacks or cancer? These questions, and more, are answered by Dr. Eric Topol, a leading cardiologist, gene hunter and medical thinker. Topol’s analysis draws us to the very frontlines of medicine and leaves us with a view of a landscape that is both foreign and daunting. As baby-boomers approach retirement age, they are going to be confronted with important choices among many new medical technologies. Don’t miss this important lecture based on Dr. Topol’s new book.

Tickets are first come, first served at the door. Seating is limited. $8 for Skeptics Society members and the JPL/Caltech community, $10 for nonmembers. Your admission fee is a donation that pays for our lecture expenses.

Followed by…
  • Revelations: Visions, Prophecy, and Politics in the Book of Revelation
    with Dr. Elaine Pagels
    Monday, March 19, 2012 at 7:30 pm

SEE ALL UPCOMING LECTURES

BUY PAST LECTURES ON DVD

5 Comments »

5 Comments

  1. Donald Clarkson says:

    Is not the fact that more people have access to a cellphone than a toilet a horrible and depressing indictment of the society we have created?

  2. John M. Długosz says:

    The samples presented doesn’t “mean that the rate of acceleration is itself changing”, as there are not enough data points given to rule out normal exponential growth.

    The prediction of a laptop being as powerful as the brain in 15 years (2027) seems faster than detailed analyses I’ve seen to date.

  3. Dr. Strangelove says:

    Mr. Shermer,

    What’s their take on global warming? Are we doomed? Or it’s all hype, renewables and geoengineering will solve it?

  4. Dr. says:

    I highly doubt that the assertion “At the current rate of decline [in poverty] it will reach zero by around 2035” is accurate. There are no indications that this is a likely scenario to happen in 20-25 years from now.

Patreon: a new way to support the things skeptic creates

Get eSkeptic

Science in your inbox every Wednesday!

eSkeptic delivers great articles, videos, podcasts, reviews, event announcements, and more to your inbox once a week.

Sign me up!

Donate to Skeptic

Please support the work of the Skeptics Society. Make the world a more rational place and help us defend the role of science in society.

Detecting Baloney

Baloney Detection Kit Sandwich (Infographic) by Deanna and Skylar (High Tech High Media Arts, San Diego, CA)

The Baloney Detection Kit Sandwich (Infographic)

For a class project, a pair of 11th grade physics students created the infographic shown below, inspired by Michael Shermer’s Baloney Detection Kit: a 16-page booklet designed to hone your critical thinking skills.

FREE Video Series

Science Based Medicine vs. Alternative Medicine

Science Based Medicine vs. Alternative Medicine

Understanding the difference could save your life! In this superb 10-part video lecture series, Harriet Hall, M.D., contrasts science-based medicine with so-called “complementary and alternative” methods. The lectures each range from 32 to 45 minutes.

FREE PDF Download

Top 10 Myths of Terrorism

Is Terrorism an Existential Threat?

This free booklet reveals 10 myths that explain why terrorism is not a threat to our way of life or our survival.

FREE PDF Download

The Top 10 Weirdest Things

The Top Ten Strangest Beliefs

Michael Shermer has compiled a list of the top 10 strangest beliefs that he has encountered in his quarter century as a professional skeptic.

FREE PDF Download

Reality Check: How Science Deniers Threaten Our Future (paperback cover)

Who believes them? Why? How can you tell if they’re true?

What is a conspiracy theory, why do people believe in them, and why do they tend to proliferate? Why does belief in one conspiracy correlate to belief in others? What are the triggers of belief, and how does group identity factor into it? How can one tell the difference between a true conspiracy and a false one?

FREE PDF Download

The Science Behind Why People See Ghosts

The Science Behind Why People See Ghosts

Do you know someone who has had a mind altering experience? If so, you know how compelling they can be. They are one of the foundations of widespread belief in the paranormal. But as skeptics are well aware, accepting them as reality can be dangerous…

FREE PDF Download

Top 10 Myths About Evolution

Top 10 Myths About Evolution (and how we know it really happened)

If humans came from apes, why aren’t apes evolving into humans? Find out in this pamphlet!

FREE PDF Download

Learn to be a Psychic in 10 Easy Lessons

Learn to do Psychic “Cold Reading” in 10
Easy Lessons

Psychic readings and fortunetelling are an ancient art — a combination of acting and psychological manipulation.

Copyright © 1992–2017. All rights reserved. The Skeptics Society | P.O. Box 338 | Altadena, CA, 91001 | 1-626-794-3119. Privacy Policy.