God Isn’t Dead: The World Is Becoming More Religious

On April 7, 1966, Time magazine generated headlines by asking “Is God Dead?” Four decades later, the “Four Horsemen of Atheism,”  Christopher Hitchens, Richard Dawkins, Sam Harris, and Daniel Dennett famously heralded religion’s unraveling.

A mere eight years after their declaration, Pew Research Center reported that the percentage of those identifying as agnostic/atheist was projected to increase substantially in the United States and Europe.

In 2021, Christian church membership dipped below 50% in the United States, and about three in ten Americans now identify as “religiously unaffiliated,” up from 16% in 2007 to 28% today. In her article The World’s Departure from Organized Religion, Erica Pandey notes that the rise in religiously nonaffiliated groups has expanded to countries such as Japan, Israel, Italy, and India.

Having been an agnostic for many years now, I find myself repeating these tropes. I’ve argued that the Information Age is leading to an overall decline in religion. Christianity, Islam, and the other major religions of the world will decrease in number like Zoroastrianism, until extinct like so many other religions throughout history.

At first glance it appears that nonbelievers are correct: Religion does indeed appear to be dying. What does the data say, though?

To answer this question, let us examine the projected growth of the world’s major religions against the projected growth of the world’s population.

As of this writing, the world’s population is estimated to be around 8.3 billion. The United Nations projects this number to reach 8.5 billion in 2030, increasing to 9.7 billion by 2050.

As of 2020, the most recent high quality data available, the world’s foremost religions included Christianity (28.8%), Islam (25.6%), Hinduism (14.9%), and Buddhism (4.1%). Those identifying as unaffiliated make up 24.2% of the world’s population, while “other religions” (excluding Judaism, about 0.2%) are around 2.2%.

Christianity

Christianity is the world’s most popular religion. The Center for the Study of Global Christianity projects that 3.3 billion will identify as Christian by 2050. If the UN projection of 9.7 billion people by 2050 is correct, then 34% of the world’s inhabitants will be Christian, an increase of 5.2 percentage points. Pew Research data (see below) projects the growth at 2.6 percentage points.

Islam 

Islam is the fastest-growing religion in the world, having added approximately 350 million followers between 2010 to 2020, compared to only 120 million for Christianity. Pew projects the Muslim population to be nearly 3 billion by mid century, an increase from 25.6% to 30.9% using UN world population estimates, and 29.7% using Pew projections. By 2100, Muslims worldwide are projected to outnumber Christians.

Buddhism

Buddhism is projected not to grow, or grow slightly from 4.1% to 5.2% (1.1 percentage points) by 2050.

Hinduism

The percentage of Hindu believers is projected not to change by 2050, meaning their absolute number will increase.

Religiously unaffiliated

Atheists and agnostics remain a minority in most countries. Pew reports the number of people unaffiliated with religion on the planet is about 24.2%. This number is expected to decrease as a percentage overall.

The world’s religiously unaffiliated population is projected at 1.23 billion by 2050, dropping as a share of the world’s population from 24.2% to 13.2%. Were “religiously unaffiliated” a religion, its adherents could expect the largest projected decline of all comparative groups.

Note: The 2020 figures come from Pew’s 2025 update, while the 2050 figures come from Pew’s earlier 2015 projection model. Pew notes that new 2050 projections are not yet available. The 2050 column should be read as an illustrative comparison with Pew’s older 2015 model, not as a formal projection from Pew’s current estimates. Direct comparisons based exclusively on the 2015 report, however, show similar trends (+3 percentage points growth by 2050 for Christianity, +6 percentage points for Islam).

Simple demographics, not faith, drive these numbers. To begin with, Muslims are younger. Globally, the median age of a Muslim is 24.1, which is 12.7 years younger than the median non-believer.

Muslim women have more children, too. The average of 2.9 children per female Muslim is 0.7 higher than the average of all non-Muslims (2.2).

In all major regions where there is a sizable Muslim population, Muslim fertility exceeds non-Muslim fertility. Africa is the fastest-growing continent (its population is expected to double by 2050). Half of Africa’s inhabitants (of a total of 1.49 billion) identify as Muslim. Specifically, Muslims make up about a third of sub-Saharan Africa with a fertility rate of 5.2, and at 94% the overwhelming majority of the Middle East–North Africa region.

Even though Europe’s population is shrinking, its Muslim population has grown 15.9% (from 39.3 million to 45.5 million) between 2010 and 2020. In the same time frame, the Muslim population in North America has grown 52.3%, from 3.9 million to 5.9 million. These numbers are projected to continue to grow through 2050, either in line with or outpacing other parts of the world.

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In The God Delusion, Richard Dawkins notes the phenomenon of Northern Hemisphere Chauvinism when looking at globes with the north pole on top. The data indicates that Dawkins, his fellow Horsemen of Atheism, and Yours Truly have been practicing Northwestern Hemispheric Chauvinism in celebrating religion’s demise.

Organized religion isn’t going anywhere for a long time. God Isn’t Anywhere Near Dead.