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Bayesian reasoning

Bayesian Balance: How a Tool for Bayesian Thinking Can Guide Us Between Relativism and the Truth Trap

This article explores the concept of truthiness, introduced by Stephen Colbert, and its implications in today’s discourse, where subjective truths often overshadow objective reality. It discusses the dangers of absolute certainty in beliefs, exemplified by a Young Earth creationist. Through Bayesian reasoning, it suggests adjusting beliefs based on evidence and introduces a model called Bayesian Balance, which helps in evaluating evidence without succumbing to absolute certainty.

Martin Rees — Can Science Save Us?

Shermer and Rees discuss: existential threats • overpopulation • biodiversity loss • climate change • AI and self-driving cars, robots, and unemployment • his bet with Steven Pinker • his disagreement with Richard Dawkins • how science works as a communal activity • scientific creativity • science communication • science education • why there aren’t more women and people of color in STEM fields • verification vs. falsification • Bayesian reasoning and scientific progress • Model Dependent Realism and the…

Nick Pope on UAPs, UFOs, Conspiracies, and Cover-ups

Author, journalist and TV personality Nick Pope ran the British government’s UFO program for the Ministry of Defense, leading the media to call him the real Fox Mulder. He’s recognized as one of the world’s leading experts on UFOs, the unexplained, and conspiracy theories. Nick is the media’s go-to person for UFOs.

eSkeptic for February 1, 2022

Read the Skeptic Research Center’s general report, “Pandemic Politics: How 2020 Impacted Americans’ Social and Political Attitudes,” based on their nine reports from the Civil Unrest and Presidential Election Study (CUPES) released in late 2020–early 2021. PLUS: Michael Shermer speaks with author, journalist, and TV personality Nick Pope about UAPs, UFOs, conspiracies, and cover-ups.

Michio Kaku — The God Equation: The Quest for a Theory of Everything

Synthesizing relativity and quantum theory would be the crowning achievement of science, a profound merging of all the forces of nature into one beautiful, magnificent equation to unlock the deepest mysteries in science. In this episode, Michael Shermer speaks with professor of theoretical physics Michio Kaku about: the Big Bang, black holes, worm holes, the multiverse, time travel, dark energy and dark matter, gravity, string theory, ETIs, meaning, and God.

eSkeptic for April 6, 2021

Michael Shermer speaks with professor of theoretical physics Michio Kaku about The Quest for a Theory of Everything. PLUS: From now through April 10, 2021 (5 days only) all print and digital back issues Skeptic magazine are on sale for only $1.99 each!

What is Truth, Anyway?

In this lecture Dr. Michael Shermer addresses one of the deepest questions of all: what is truth? How do we know what is true, untrue, or uncertain?

eSkeptic for June 26, 2020

In a lecture, Dr. Michael Shermer addresses one of the deepest questions of all: what is truth? Following that, Lee McIntyre and Michael Shermer debate whether we are living in a Post-Truth era of fake news and alternative facts.

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